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Changes in Electorate Demographics and Policy Priorities in Concurrent Elections
Eddie Lucero (Colorado State), Ricardo Robles (UC Merced), Jessica Trounstine (Vanderbilt University), & Jonathan Collins (Teachers College, Columbia University)
Overview
In 2015 the state of California ended more than 150 years of off-cycle local elections with the passage of SB 415, the California Voter Participation Rights Act (Anzia 2012; SB415). Aiming to increase turnout in local elections, the bill forced all California jurisdictions (like cities and school districts) to begin holding elections concurrently with statewide elections. SB 415 allows local governments to align their elections with either general or primary elections in even numbered years, resulting in variation across cities in the kind of concurrent election that they hold. This state level change in election law offers a unique opportunity to measure the effect of forced changes to election timing on voter turnout and voter priorities.
To understand how different types of election concurrency affect the electorate we focus on a single county in California – Los Angeles. We sought to identify a location where it would be possible to generate a survey sample of residents living in cities that were already holding concurrent elections, as well as residents living in cities that would be forced to change to concurrent elections by SB415. Los Angeles County fit these needs. The county is comprised of more than 80 cities that feature significant diversity in terms of total population, demographic composition, and political orientation. The cities also vary in terms of election timing. Some cities have always held elections concurrent with state and national elections, but many, including Los Angeles itself, were forced to switch by SB 415. The city of LA waited until the 2020 election to comply with SB 415, and many of the smaller cities in the county followed suit to save on election costs.
Findings
Using election returns for gathered from the California Election Data Archive, we find that aligning local elections with presidential general elections has the largest effect on turnout of age-eligible voters (an increase of nearly 30 percentage points), followed by local elections that are held concurrently with midterm general elections (which increase turnout by about 20 percentage points). Elections that are moved to be held concurrently with primary elections witness a smaller increase in turnout (only about 8 percentage points higher than off-cycle elections).
Next, we draw on data from an original survey of more than 3,000 residents in the 88 cities of Los Angeles County, conducted immediately following the 2020 general election, to explore the demographic composition and policy priorities of the electorate when election timing changes. By asking respondents about their policy preferences and their turnout in two local elections, we show that significant fault lines exist on local issues and that residents’ varied priorities correlate with their likelihood of participating in local elections.
Compared to off-cycle elections, when local elections are held concurrently with presidential general elections, we find that renters, young people, people of color, less educated people, and weak partisans are more likely to turn out to vote. We do not find the same effect for local elections that are held concurrently with primary elections or midterm elections. We plot the coefficients from the presidential concurrent model in Figure 1. Each dot represents a demographic trait of the respondents in our model. Dots to the left of zero indicate the group is less likely to participate in presidential elections compared to off-cycle elections. Dots to the right indicate that the group is more likely to turn out to vote. When the horizontal error bars do not cross the dotted line at zero, the result is statistically significant.
Figure 1: Turnout in Presidential Concurrent Elections Compared to Off-Cycle Elections
We also find that, in the aggregate, the electorate is more likely to prioritize housing affordability, the provision of immigrant services, and the availability of multilingual government documents when elections are held concurrently with presidential general elections compared to off-cycle elections. These are all issues that are more important to voters of color, renters, young voters, poorer voters, and women. We show this result in figure 2. We have highlighted the results that are statistically significant.
Figure 2: Policy Priorities by Election Timing
Conclusions
When cities change their election timing from off-cycle to concurrent elections, they frequently choose to align with primaries instead of general elections; a choice that is acceptable under SB 415. Our research suggests that these concurrent elections will not dramatically reshape the electorate or local representation. However, when cities align their local elections with presidential general elections, they are likely to witness a diversification of their electorate as well as increased prioritization of local issues that are of particular importance to young voters, renters, and voters of color.
Eddie Lucero is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at CSU Pueblo, College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences. His research interests include racial and ethnic politics, Latino politics, and voting and election systems in subnational contexts. His current work examines the differential effect intergroup contact with migrants has on Latino and white Americans' support for state-level immigration policy. He has published in the California Journal of Politics and Public Policy, Journal of Law and Courts, Political Research Quarterly, and Urban Affairs Review.
Ricardo Robles is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the University of California, Merced. His research interests lie at the intersection of racial and ethnic politics and judicial politics in the US. His work has been previously published in Political Research Quarterly and The Journal of Law and Courts.
Jessica Trounstine is a Professor of Political Science. Her areas of research are local politics and representation in the United States.
Jonathan Collins is an Assistant Professor of political science and education at Teachers College, Columbia University. His research interests include local and urban politics, race and ethnic politics, democratic governance, and the politics of education. His current work explores how democratic reforms, especially at the school district level, influence civic and political engagement. His work has been published in the American Political Science Review, American Politics Research, and the Journal of Public Policy.